We initially called for and end to wave  / start of wave  at the end of October, but for two months, gold has not bounced (as is often the case with a higher degree wave  start in bear or bull markets). Time is running out for the move after October to convince us it is in fact a wave  up.
We are now seeing something different unfolding. If the last few months are in fact a consolidation, we would expect another sharp decline in gold by summer. This would alter our count (altered count shown in purple) and strongly indicate that we are heading well below $1000 per ounce by the fall of 2015.
We also included the US Dollar (in gray) as an overlay. The USD historically trends inverted to gold. Notice the gold top and USD bottom in early 2011. With the USD trending as it is, we would need to see a major pullback in the USD (and major move up in the Euro) for gold to reverse up.
We have not included silver in the chart (too much information on one chart), but if you refer to the latest silver monthly you will see that the mid 2013 low in silver has already been broken. In gold, this mid 2013 has not been broken and is currently acting as support. Gold and silver often correlate well with some lead / lag (Silver top in April 2011, Gold in July 2011).
So how does this affect markets? First, gold's collapse aligns well with deflation. Second, this supports our belief that the US Dollar and not gold is and will continue to be the safe haven. And lastly, when this move in gold takes hold, US stock markets will now have more downward pressure put upon them (as the USD continues climbing). We expect gold's first leg of this collapse ( <$1000 per ounce) under this scenario to start by June 2015.