S&P500 Daily -

[Technical Indicators We Use – MACD, MACD Histogram, Bollinger Bands, Candlestick Patterns, Elliott Wave Counts, Cycle Brackets, Volume, Channel Support and Channel Resistance, Support and Resistance Levels.]

Most of the MSM is crediting today’s move on Yellen’s speech.  Why not?  It’s as good as any other reason.  The reality is that market swings get wider (today’s RUT was up 3.11%) as a bear trend picks up momentum.  We could see another move up tomorrow, but you may notice that since December 8, when large up moves were made, they were rejected the following trade day.  The USD rocketed over a cent today – another indication that markets should continue lower.  The 6 month t-bill yield has quadrupled in the last month – these are not large number moves, but the message is clear – the cost of shorter term money (ie: bank rates) is going to move up soon and there’s little that Yellen can do now other than talk about it.  In short, the probable move is a small up tomorrow.  The less likely move is a sharp reversal.  The most unlikely is a sharp move higher.  The trend is down for the next 2-3 trading days at least.

Click on chart to enlarge S&P500 Daily – Sharp Move Up – Expect Larger Daily Swings As Bear Market Takes Over

S&P500 Daily -

[Technical Indicators We Use – MACD, MACD Histogram, Bollinger Bands, Candlestick Patterns, Elliott Wave Counts, Cycle Brackets, Volume, Channel Support and Channel Resistance, Support and Resistance Levels.]

European indexes fell near 2.5% partly to catch on US losses last Friday.  Yellen does some Fed blathering on Wednesday at 2p New York time which may be useful for some bounce, but we should continue falling shortly thereafter.  Wait for markets to finish bouncing and see them showing some sign of rolling over before going short.  Still lots of bear trap minded traders out there.

Click on chart to enlarge S&P500 Daily Stalls At Channel Support – Overall Trend Remains Down

S&P500 Daily -

[Technical Indicators We Use – MACD, MACD Histogram, Bollinger Bands, Candlestick Patterns, Elliott Wave Counts, Cycle Brackets, Volume, Channel Support and Channel Resistance, Support and Resistance Levels.]

We should see price move back within the bands for one or more small up days.  We are mindful of central banks desire for positive year end results – aka window dressing.  Commodity indexes continued lower (and it’s not just oil).  Europe was down over 2.5% across the board.  Technicals here are largely bearish, but this means little when central banks buy, but even central banks run out of time too.  Wait for the bounce – it won’t last long.

Click on chart to enlarge S&P500 Daily Tanks Again – To Channel Support – We Expect A Bounce To Start The Week

S&P500 Daily -

[Technical Indicators We Use – MACD, MACD Histogram, Bollinger Bands, Candlestick Patterns, Elliott Wave Counts, Cycle Brackets, Volume, Channel Support and Channel Resistance, Support and Resistance Levels.]

Today’s fall was more becoming of a lousy global economy and deflating commodities – the market rolled and fell without disruptive central banks buying up over priced issues directly or indirectly for some undisclosed benefit.  We may see some buying come in at the open, but that should fade quickly – if we stay up tomorrow, we can say hello to central banks again.  2020 is showing up as support – we think that the market will plow right through this level and head lower.  1980 has some greater support.

Click on chart to enlarge S&P500 Finally Ends Up Trend After 35 Days – Central Banks Backing Off Bidding Markets Higher

S&P500 Daily -

[Technical Indicators We Use – MACD, MACD Histogram, Bollinger Bands, Candlestick Patterns, Elliott Wave Counts, Cycle Brackets, Volume, Channel Support and Channel Resistance, Support and Resistance Levels.]

We are still in our up trend after 36 trading days – about two months – and today was our first sign of trend change.  Central banks must have taken the day off, but there’s still the share buyback programs driven by near zero interest corporate bonds (aka long term corporate debt).  We expect to see another down day tomorrow.  The rumor is that central banks won’t rescue markets on the next fall.  Regardless, we are due for a greater than 10 percent drop soon.

Click on chart to enlarge S&P500 Daily Pulls Back As Bollinger Starts Rolling – Another Down Day Tomorrow Likely
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