S&P500 Weekly -

[Create Your Own Opinion – Technical Indicators Used – MACD, MACD Histogram, Bollinger Bands, Candlestick Patterns, Elliott Wave Counts, Cycle Brackets, Volume, Channel Support and Channel Resistance, Support and Resistance Levels.]

Much of our analysis has leaned toward what the Fed has been doing to manipulate (through indirect purchases of equities) markets higher.  With the USD strength, revenue and earnings should get crushed in Q1 and guidance will be weak.  Typically, companies provide earnings confessionals (adjustments) to the quarter end.  We have seen Intel do this (down 4% after the announcement) and no one else.  Next week could be the launch of these confessionals.  The USD pullback is unlikely to last - it's taking a breather and resume upside next week.  Downside pressure is at extremes.  Meaningless tripe from Yellen this week was just the trigger for her coordinated jack hammering of the market higher - nothing else.  GDP guidance is falling fast too. Many Chinese firms report this coming week in Hong Kong - we expect lots of lying.  However, we should fall hard this week based on the former.

Click on chart to enlarge S&P500 Weekly Closes Up – Earnings Confessionals Still Nowhere To Be Found

S&P500 Weekly -

[Create Your Own Opinion – Technical Indicators Used – MACD, MACD Histogram, Bollinger Bands, Candlestick Patterns, Elliott Wave Counts, Cycle Brackets, Volume, Channel Support and Channel Resistance, Support and Resistance Levels.]

The bizarro world of Yellen controlled (Federal Reserve controlled) markets continue.  Here's a nugget that should be fun to watch - in 48 hours, the US government will either default or get another shot of "more debt" as the debt ceiling hits Sunday night.  If unresolved, the US government starts defaulting Monday morning first thing - this is the real deal.  What's more ominous is that other that Zero Hedge's one article, virtually no MSM is currently covering this.

We are also two weeks away from quarter end and Intel alone has adjusted down, as we had forecast all US companies would due to US dollar strength.  The darker question is where are other hundreds of companies that will need to do this?  Share buybacks and the Yellenator won't save this quarter.

Europe's markets are also riding to new record highs because as we all know, continent wide deflation (or depression - pick what you prefer) and shrinking GDP is bullish for markets.

Yes folks, central banks are out of control and operating well outside of their mandated purpose - nasty stuff.  Expect to see markets fall further again next week - this is a guess based on technicals, but Yellen could show up and buy up more of the US private sector to keep things, regardless of ramping deflation.

Click on chart to enlarge S&P500 Weekly Down For Third Week – Not Enough For Trend Reversal – US Debt Ceiling Deadline On Sunday

S&P500 Weekly -

[Technical Indicators We Use – MACD, MACD Histogram, Bollinger Bands, Candlestick Patterns, Elliott Wave Counts, Cycle Brackets, Volume, Channel Support and Channel Resistance, Support and Resistance Levels.]

While it has taken much longer than expected, the stronger US dollar has finally broken the backs of the US indexes.  There will be little that Yellen can do to reverse this.  A stronger US dollar negatively affects all US based companies through their export trade and their businesses abroad that transact in other currencies.  We need to close below 1980 on a weekly basis to consider this to be a trend reversal (after six long years of Federal Reserve bidding US markets higher).  US bonds have also been crushed in the process (while yield continue to rise).  Markets moving down as US bonds move down - implies a very unstable / bearish scenario.

Click on chart to enlarge S&P500 Weekly Down Sharply As US Dollar Continues To Rocket Higher – As Forecast

S&P500 Weekly -

[Technical Indicators We Use – MACD, MACD Histogram, Bollinger Bands, Candlestick Patterns, Elliott Wave Counts, Cycle Brackets, Volume, Channel Support and Channel Resistance, Support and Resistance Levels.]

As central banks continue to interfere, the best they can do is jack hammer markets higher.  The economy is flat and fading.  GDP growth in the US in 2014 was largely due to Obamacare - a government created system that is handcuffing the private sector.  After 7 years and counting, government remains a huge problem.  Expect a pullback next week - cycle brackets are being ignored, but they may not get ignored forever.   The key is the USD and as it continues move higher, markets will eventually fall hard.

Click on chart to enlarge S&P500 Weekly Closes Down Marginally – Technicals Show Downside Next Week

S&P500 Weekly -

[Technical Indicators We Use – MACD, MACD Histogram, Bollinger Bands, Candlestick Patterns, Elliott Wave Counts, Cycle Brackets, Volume, Channel Support and Channel Resistance, Support and Resistance Levels.]

The good news from all this is that the MSM is doing the Fed's heavy lifting by pumping euphoria to the masses like never before.  This is often the case at major tops.  Our friends at Zero Hedge put into perspective just how detached markets really are.  Take note of the chart at the bottom of this linked page. US and the global economies are getting worse each month.   Gravity wins out over time, unless the Fed chooses to purchase the entire stock market itself - we say this in jest, but the Fed is doing a pretty good job of doing this so far.  We are also of the opinion that the Fed's declaration of an unaudited $4.2T balance sheet is a lie.  We believe the Fed's balance sheet number may be greater than $10T with no sign of shrinking.  Technicals are mixed - MACD continues to fade, although a "cross over is starting to form.  The use of cycle brackets on this chart are bigger joke as the market has almost ignored any cyclical moves and has linearly moved up from 2009.  All time highs - and this is why we have said to trade small and scalp your way to profits - there is no such thing as long term investing - the bulls will eventually figure this out.

Click on chart to enlarge S&P500 Weekly Closes Up Third Straight Week As Central Banks Continue To Bid Failing Global Economy
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